The usually reliable Field Poll showed 29% in favor and 46% opposing, while a Los Angeles Times poll showed that 33% favored the initiative and 44% opposed it. Unions have spent $100 million ot fight the initiative. In August, the Field Poll found Proposition 75 winning by 13 points.
Proposition 75 is a Schwarzenegger-backed initiative designed to cripple the political power of public employee unions by requiring government employee unions to give prior notice to members before using dues on political activity.
According to the Times poll, Proposition 75 supporters aren't fooling many people. Although the initiative is billed as an attempt to protect the rights of union members, most (whether they're for or against) believe it's really designed to reduce the unions' political influence:
More than six out of 10 voters believe that Prop 75 is intended to decrease the influence that unions have in state politics, while 26% said the measure is intended to protect the rights of union members. Interestingly 30% of union members believe this initiative is on the ballot to protect their rights. And among that small group, an overwhelming majority are supporting the initiative. Also, nearly two out of five voters believe unions in California have too much influence, while a fifth think they have too little. More than a third (36%) believe unions exert the right amount of influence and seven in 10 of this group say they are voting against Prop 75. A surprising 25% of union members who are deemed likely to vote, think unions have too much influence and they overwhelmingly support the measure. Also, nearly half of Republicans amd 45% of conservatives do not believe the initiative would protect union members rights, but rather decrease the influence of unions around the state, compared to 38% of Republicans and 39% of conservatives who believe this proposition is intended to protect the rights of union members.Arnold can't even get his base to support Prop. 75:
For example, 42% of moderate Republicans, 27% of conservatives and 26% of Republicans are all voting against Prop 75. Voters in a more affluent household are opposed to Prop 75, as are all age groups, especially the elderly.The poll also shows the growing influence of Latino voters and Latino union members:
White voters are split, while 56% of Latinos are against the measure. This poll shows 28% of union members who are likely to vote to be Latinos, or put another way, 41% of Latino likely voters are union members.All of Schwarzenegger's initiatives are losing, exept for the teacher tenure measure, which is roughly tied, according to the Times.